Energy analysis and surrogate modeling for the green methanol production under dynamic operating conditions

Green methanol production, based on intermittent renewable energy sources, requires a more flexible operation mode and close integration with other sections, such as, the electrical grid electrolysis processes. In this study, synthesis distillation processes (MSD) for pilot-scale green production (corresponding to 22,236 tons/year) were investigated by dynamic modeling, focusing analysis characteristics during load change (LC) operations. The simulation results ramp rate of 50% / h indicated efficiencies 87.7% (at full-load) 90.2% half-load) process, 86.8% (full-load) 82.4% (half-load) 77.1% 75.4% MSD process. Relatively small fluctuations achieved time 1 LC Based constructed model, surrogate modeling process was conducted using nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) which exhibited good accuracy evaluated performance testing data root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 3.09 × 10-5, mean absolute (MAE) 2.30 10-4, R2 1.0. NARX can be further integrated models sections power-to-methanol